Corona: We are all in the same war NOW. An emergency warning call and info from Europe

We all are in the same war now.

Hi all, I am Jeroen Theuns, to some of you known together with Guy Wydouw from Skalp for SketchUp, based in Belgium, Europe, epicentre Corona Covid-19. No need to express we care deeply about SketchUp and its community. I got a wakeup call from Thomas Hauchecorne from Skatter/Transmutr this moring. France is in total Lock-down. We are in self lock-down for 5 days now but still awaiting total lock down by our government. Below the start/origin of what I am preparing in my mind to shout out to you all. In order to save time I decide now to just copy my message to Thomas and rely on you guys abilty to infer the message between the lines. Here you go:

Hi Thomas I am making a call on your help.

It is clear in my mind now what is going on, it took me till now to really understand while I numbly saw it coming literally for weeks now. We are all being taken on speed. Apparently we need some serious acceleration and figure out to cause those downstream of the Corona Tsunami to realize what they have to do NOW.

In that regard I suddenly realized many of our friends in the SketchUp community are effectively downstream in the USA. They are very smart and they are many. They have the exponential potential to shout out early, saving lives. We might be able to help them by providing good and really early information.
The objective is clear they ALL need to realize they all are in the exact same war NOW. They need to understand beyond any doubt that they need to LOCK DOWN NOW.

What we see upstream from us learns us that many people do respond by self- lock down which is good and natural. What some might not realize is that this is what all people upstream already did or are doing. With the exception of a few nations who showed the capability to flatten the curve just a little bit faster because they have prior experience from Sars and Mers. (China, South Korea) All others react in the natural old traditional fashion: monitor the issue and react as needed. That is now proven to be totally INSUFFICIENT. You need to shout to ALL upstream to LOCK THE F*#K DOWN NOW! Spending time thinking is losing lives to the non-stoppable exponential spreading and tsunamic overwhelming of the health care system of Covid-19. We all saw the chinese scrambling building an emergency hospital, yet did NOT understand.

I am asking you to join to prepare a post to put on the SketchUp forum today. It is important that we make clear we are not promoting panic. It should be as if the commander in chief raises his voice loud but extremely clear.
As Macron did yesterday on nation TV:
WE ARE AT WAR NOW.

The point is to realize this is true NOW, TODAY at this very moment for the USA more than perhaps since the Spanish flue.

Could you please help to prepare the data you posted earlier today in order to add those to the now planned post on the Sketchup forum so that all the smarts upstream are helped to quickly peer review and learn from the info as fast as possible.

Also, please be critical to me as well if needed. Be deadly honest please. I want the best possible message that is needed no. But I am limited in my wording and I can be perceived as too shouty. This is my frustrating problem right now. But I believe by calling on other people to streamline the social engineering of the message we might achieve a gain in pickup speed which is what we need. SPEED.

This calls on hour collective instincts like haven’t seen for generations. It will be harsh but it will unbelievable to see how all people will of at opinions will respond and act once they truly realize and understand what is going on. The only thing is: Italy, Spain, France: it happens: all people do respond beautifully and heat warming to see. But it is just TOO SLOW. This virus is getting us all purely on SPEED.

ACT NOW.

Thanks!

Jeroen

I’ll be adding actual graphs, thanks Thomas, and data ASAP

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Deepl translation from French of the message Thomas sent to me this morning:

I have aligned the evolution of the epidemic in France and Italy with that of Hubei province in China, where the virus appeared. There are 60 million inhabitants in this province, so it’s comparable to France and Italy.
So the graphs start in all three cases at 400 confirmed patients. The dotted curves are the number of confirmed cases (left scale), and the continuous curves are the number of deaths (right scale).
We can see that the number of confirmed cases evolves a little faster in China. Either it’s because it was new and they took longer to react, or it’s because they were testing more people than in France and Italy.
On the other hand, we see that the number of deaths in Italy is progressing much faster than in China.
In France, the number of confirmed cases is closely following the Chinese and Italian curves, but the number of deaths is currently lower, almost half. This is good news, it means that our health system has a better capacity and can better treat serious cases. But we’re not yet at saturation point in hospitals, and we’re certainly going to get there. And if we want to project ourselves against the Chinese curve, we have to remember that they built two large hospitals in about ten days (about ten!!), for a total of 2600 beds, open on D+13 and D+18 on the graphs.
The 2nd bad news is that the containment in France started much later than in China. Confinement in Wuhan started when there were only 440 confirmed cases. In France, it started when there were already 6600 confirmed cases.
It should be noted that there is a gap of about 12 days between the reality of the extent of the epidemic and the confirmed cases. That is to say that the people who test positive today were infected several days ago. So the 6600 confirmed cases that we have today correspond to the reality of more than 10 days ago (not counting all the infected people who will never be diagnosed because they don’t have severe enough symptoms). So the 10-day delay in deciding on containment compared to the Chinese could be very serious. In 10 days, the number of patients is multiplied by more than 8!
It’s even worse in Italy, they started the containment 2 days later than us.
Basically, it is likely that the epidemic in Italy and France is more serious than in China.
We’re still going to follow the exponential curve for some time, certainly a fortnight. That doesn’t mean that containment measures are useless, it’s just that there’s a time lag and people infected before containment will continue to come forward, but the curve will eventually flatten out. These measures are no joke; if they are not strictly adhered to, there is a very high risk.
Models estimate that today (March 17) there are between 100,000 and 600,000 people infected in France (only a fraction will actually be diagnosed as such). That is to say between one person in 100 and one person in 600. Knowing that this figure doubles every 3 days … (well, “doubled”, before containment).
A person reading this text is probably already infected without knowing it.
This may be scary, but there’s no reason to panic. Only a small fraction of infected people die from it, the majority don’t even realize they are infected. There is no need to be afraid for our own health, but let’s be very careful not to infect the frail, with chronic diseases, respiratory or otherwise.
When we talk about large numbers, a small fraction is still a large number! The risk is that hospitals will be overloaded and people who could have been treated will die for lack of care.
This is a very good article that explains the spread of the epidemic, the gap between reality and the confirmed sick, the risks incurred collectively, etc. https://medium.com/.../coronavirus-agissez-aujourdhui-2bd1dc7.../coronavirus-against-today-2bd1dc7
It was last updated on March 13. The sentence turns are sometimes a bit strange because it’s a quick translation, but the background is very interesting.
Well, good luck to you all for these few weeks of confinement. Let’s be rigorous, and we’ll get there!
PS: Here are the two graphics in web version for more readability.
https://bit.ly/3d2J8mZ
https://bit.ly/2IORy3u

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Deepl translation from post on Belgian news:

Flemish virologist in Italy writes an open letter to the Belgian government: "What are you waiting for?
Iris De Ryck, a Belgian epidemiologist and virologist living in Italy, has written an open letter to the authorities in our country. She calls on them to take more measures now, while it is still possible.

She makes the comparison between Lombardy and Belgium. “What exactly are you waiting for to issue the whole package of available measures? History will be milder for those who are not guided by fear, nor by hope, but by facts.”

Kathleen Heylen
10:05
Dear policy maker,

Situations with no precedent and manual, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, call for proactive exceptional measures where the only fundamental choice you have to make as a policymaker is: do you accept that measures taken may turn out to be “exaggerated” or do you prefer to accept the chance that you have not intervened sufficiently? That choice it is, because certainty about the right (quantity of) measures will only give the future, but there is no time for that. Nobody “knows”, but history will be milder for those who are not guided by fear, nor by hope, but by facts.

Fact 1: Expanding measures gradually on the basis of “real time” Belgian data is not possible, but Lombardy (Italy) offers a view on the future of Belgium in 9 days’ time

The effect of each measure only becomes clear with a delay of 2 weeks (because of “time to symptoms” and “time to death”), so step-by-step adjustments are impossible to correctly inform by real time data from Belgium itself.
Lombardy has 10.3 million inhabitants, 37 hospital beds and 1.3 ICU (intensive care unit, red) beds per 10,000 inhabitants. Belgium has 11.4 million, 31 and 1.6 million beds respectively. There is therefore no reason to assume that Lombardy and Belgium differ significantly in terms of health care capacity (NB: Lombardy has an older population which may increase the need for ICU beds).
Due to the limited testing capacity, Phase 1 (‘Limit’) of normal epidemic control is no longer possible in Belgium. As a result, the number of actual cases is unknown today, but diagnosed cases are an underestimation of actual cases by at least a factor of 5 - 10.
Belgium is following the same exponential trend as Wuhan and Italy in the number of real COVID-19 cases for lockdown with 9 days delay. The number of cases doubles every 3 - 5 days.
Fact 2: The health system in Lombardy is slowly reaching maximum capacity, so Belgium is at least waiting for something similar, especially since Belgium is currently applying less strict measures than Italy.

On 15 March, Lombardy had 1,420 deaths, 14,650 diagnosed cases (there are no longer any systematic tests now), 6171 of which were hospitalised and 823 at ICU (intensive care unit).
There is a shortage of trained (not sick) personnel, protective equipment (masks) and respirators. Health workers are at high risk and many are already infected. The government has to make use of voluntary personnel.
Insufficient ambulances are available in Milan for the transport of critical (COVID and non-COVID) patients.
Despite the cancellation of all non-urgent interventions, extra beds, triage and distribution to hospitals in other regions, 95-100% of all ICU beds in Lombardy are currently occupied, of which more than 60% by COVID-19 patients. Linear growth models predict that total capacity will be exceeded by 10 percent within 1 week, exponential models by 150 percent. Then choices will have to be made about who lives or not.
Fact 3: Delayed, incomplete and/or inconsistent measures cost lives

Wuhan (China, 11 million inhabitants, comparable to Belgium), as well as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore went into lockdown with (less than) 0.4 diagnosed cases per 10,000 inhabitants and within 1 week of when the number of cases per day at least doubled for the first time. These areas appear to have succeeded in stopping the exponential growth of new cases and reducing mortality rates by simultaneously using the full range of government-imposed and government-controlled Phase 1 and Phase 2 epidemic controls (*Phase 1: “Limit”: test every possible case, isolate positive cases, track contacts, place in quarantine and follow up. Phase 2: Maximum government-imposed and government-controlled social distancing measures to slow down and smooth out peak epidemics and thus avoid overburdening the health system).
Lombardia (Italy, 10.3 million inhabitants, similar to Belgium) went into lockdown at the time of 6 diagnosed cases per 10,000 inhabitants and 16 days after the number of cases per day at least doubled for the first time (i.e., 12-fold number of cases and 9 days delay versus areas).

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Comparing numbers is difficult because the number of infections varies depending on the level of diagnosis and testing in different countries and the dynamics of the spread (see huge differences in number of deaths). Numbers of deaths are probably the least inaccurate. For estimating mortality a very uncertain number is combined with a relatively accurate number that even lags behind by 2-3 weeks.

It is hard to compare the spread between or even blame regions (e.g. China, Europe, USA) because we see a pandemic at different phases (imagine a tumor, blood cancer and metastasis). When the Chinese government took action, there was still a strong regional focus which made hard measures clearly necessary. In Europe it was introduced without regional focus but sparsely and evenly scattered over the whole continent, which led leaders to act just as needed. It still is relatively unlikely to meet someone on the road who has the virus (e.g. still less than the normal flu), but due to the ubiquity the ways for the virus to travel are shorter, so this can massively change within a few days if no continent-wide lock-down is done.

And that is with excellent health systems (total population has insurance etc.). Imagine without these, more urgent and effective actions are needed. Acting is not heroic at all but a mere compensation for structures that should have been put in place at normal times. I don’t want to imagine Trump celebrating himself as the savior of the nation after having abolished Obama-Care.

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It is all so clear now.
Most americans will recognize this signal.
Now, please please understand, and Rise!

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Work from home and you can wear your pajamas all day!

(Also, how on earth are the people in LOTR so quick to respond? How do they manage to stare at a certain point in the distance for years with nothing happening, and still have the focus to respond in seconds when it does?)

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Dear eneroth3,

I am happy to see so many posts from very able developers that talk about the Corona virus. Perhaps some of them can help by designing a simple and effective ventilator that can be taken in production asap to help hospitals help their patients. Ventilators are running out, so a rights free solution that can be made anywhere and hit the market as soon as possible can save many lives. Please spread the request to your most able developers!

Arie

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From what I’ve seen, about 90% of people are amazing in a crisis. 9% are too relaxed about it…and about 1% are idiots and will make their friends and family (and the 9%) sick.

So…We in New Zealand are now on proper lockdown. No businesses are open except the emergency & health services, and food supply. We won’t leave the house for Minimum 4 weeks (but for now its still ok to walk up and down your street for fresh air.).

So far (a few days in) its not such a burden. People hoarding milk, bread, sanitary products is highly annoying though…knowing older folks and kids are having to go without basics is very sad. No need to stockpile. With farms and markets offering direct delivery we will be eating very well (NZ usually exports our best produce, but with many export orders cancelled its now ours to enjoy …and its lobster
aka crayfish season).

It’s great to have fibre internet. 10 or 25 years ago this would have been a real hardship.Working is fine, but Im at home with my 1yo daughter and its not easy to get 8hrs of work done each day! Long days and late nights ahead.

The biggest issue for NZ is that our strong (but small and fragile) economy may be ruined. This virus is costing us very (very) dearly. We are saving lives though. Fingers crossed… no deaths here.

Peace.

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Australia just lost 1M jobs in two days. everybody is shutting down for a few months.
Most people will be working from home now . Sadly Remote Desktop Protocol
in sketchup is not working. it is about time Trimble to have a look at this.
Any help/tip to make it work welcome . Keep Safe -Keep Distance
Cheers

Good point. Is now not the best time to revisit that, e.g. to remove anything (except technical limitations) that possibly disallows SketchUp to start when a remote connection is running?

Or equip enterprise customers with licensing options for home office use?

One difficulty is the companies who have tight security, and won’t allow models to be taken home.

We’ve had several requests about this, and have been pointing people to a forum solution that involves remotely opening SketchUp and then connecting. Nobody has replied to say if that worked.

Here’s the forum post that makes other suggestions, but also has scripts to do that using a bat file. Comically, I can’t test it myself because our own machines are locked down too much to use RDP at all:

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You must choose a RDP application that supports OpenGL.

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I made progress. I can now connect to RDP from Mac, Windows, or iOS. But I can’t make SketchUp not work. In the case of AMD, what settings can I change to make SketchUp fail to work as if it has hardware acceleration when connected via RDP?

Thanks guys,
@Colin: I can connect MacBook and surface laptop thru RDP no problem.
i can also work sketchup-enscape in both machine remotely, BUT my files
has to open/running from work desktop.

Keep Safe Cheers

I have no trouble either. I’m trying to make it go wrong so that I can then test work arounds.