Saturday’s New York TImes had interesting maps on the front page showing the spread under different conditions of social action. The best case one is a little heartening that these drastic measures might have real and significant impact.
Do we have any indication that people develop immunity to this once they’ve had it?
I think the unfortunate reality of the situation is that in the unlikely event that Basecamp can go ahead a huge number of people will no-longer be in a financial position that allows them to attend.
In France, we’ve already had a few cases who have been infected twice.
We don’t know exactly if the virus mutated outside or inside of their own body, causing a second infection. But what has been confirmed is that the DNA signature is slightly different.
Too soon to tell. Some diseases suffered by people with healthy immune systems result in lifetime immunity, others with shorter immunity. And some with just a very short time of immunity. And it’s too soon to tell which category contains Covid-19/
And since I haven’t heard elsewhere what @jiminybillybob reported - repeat infections in France - I’d love if he can provide a link!
I think I heard of a case some weeks ago in China of a patient getting it again. However, just because a handful of people get it again doesn’t necessarily mean immunity and heard immunity don’t work; it could also be just be them having bad luck.
That is why the experts are urging caution and saying they need time to gather and analyze data. A few outliers and anecdotal reports don’t prove anything!
I heard it from here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTJmjc0W1es
It’s a conference call between french doctors. Two of them are from the eastern part of France where most cases are occurring right now, the others are from other regions and want to know how to prepare for the wave.
I agree that this is anecdotal for now. But it indicates that even tiny mutations can bypass immunity, similar to the flu.
Real World Example of Mousetrap Fusion … Exponential Spread
The number of confirmed cases in the US will probably pass both Italy and China later this evening. Why is the spread and growth of the virus in the US so exponential in comparison to other countries? Are we just not locking down hard enough?
Not only are we not locked down hard enough, but most of the jurisdictions that ARE locked down did so later rather than sooner.
I read that a Baton Rouge, LA. church bussed in almost 2,000 people to worship together just this past Sunday! And don’t get me started on the church leaders, mostly Christian Fundamentalists, who keep stating publicly that joining together to pray in church is a higher moral priority than avoiding transmission by sheltering in place!
Also, there’s a time delay between between action and results. I’m no expert, but it must be at least 2 weeks, and probably many weeks before we see results in the growth rate as a result of the lock down.
Don’t forget the lack of testing to this point. The Mayo clinic developed their own test. They are now able to test 4000 samples a day, they are still ramping up capacity.
I’ve done projects in Westport. Not too far from home for me.
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By tonight we will have passed 100,000 COVID-19 cases. I may have to revise my estimates, it appears the doubling time may be quicker than seven days, maybe three or four days. This thing is accelerating faster than I thought it would.
If the doubling time is 3.5 days then we should see the peak around April 24th. The doubling time is also affected by how well people are self-isolating and social distancing. Since it is hard to really nail down the doubling time I would say the peak (in the US) will be somewhere between April 15th and May 15th.
I suppose everyone understands, that it is just too early to tell anything. Although example of China gives some hope that by June-July it should settle down.
Here in the UK measures developed quickly in the last week, so from Tuesday we are in a reasonable lock-down. With heavy pressure on supply chains and gigantic pressure on the NHS (National Healthcare System, so grateful that we have it!).
Depends on lock-down measures. And capacity/quality of healthcare system. E.g. you can compare Italy and Germany.
With the speed of spreading, possibly US peak will by in 2-3 weeks and will be able to spread the cases for a longer period.
Do you still have hand sanitisers and FFP2/3 masks/respirators available to buy? (not even asking about toilet rolls )
Unrealistic, viruses always evolve. But medical science really develops quickly, so custom-made drugs are closer and closer.
They are in extremely short supply right now and difficult even for health providers to obtain. I donated my workshop supply of N95 masks to a local nursing home because they couldn’t get any.
Should be illegal
Even Mecca is empty.
Here in the UK it is more civilised. With only funerals allowed, with very limited family and strict 2m separation.
I thought to do some DIY and finish sanding and varnishing my table. But quickly realised that getting even a workshop-style respirator, half or full-face, would be impossible. (so just keeping reporting people on Ebay selling them 10x more expensive - not a time for profiting)
Things are getting a little crazy out there:
The country is already starting to unravel and we are barely two weeks into this mess.