Real World Example of Mousetrap Fusion … Exponential Spread
The number of confirmed cases in the US will probably pass both Italy and China later this evening. Why is the spread and growth of the virus in the US so exponential in comparison to other countries? Are we just not locking down hard enough?
Not only are we not locked down hard enough, but most of the jurisdictions that ARE locked down did so later rather than sooner.
I read that a Baton Rouge, LA. church bussed in almost 2,000 people to worship together just this past Sunday! And don’t get me started on the church leaders, mostly Christian Fundamentalists, who keep stating publicly that joining together to pray in church is a higher moral priority than avoiding transmission by sheltering in place!
Also, there’s a time delay between between action and results. I’m no expert, but it must be at least 2 weeks, and probably many weeks before we see results in the growth rate as a result of the lock down.
Don’t forget the lack of testing to this point. The Mayo clinic developed their own test. They are now able to test 4000 samples a day, they are still ramping up capacity.
I’ve done projects in Westport. Not too far from home for me.
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By tonight we will have passed 100,000 COVID-19 cases. I may have to revise my estimates, it appears the doubling time may be quicker than seven days, maybe three or four days. This thing is accelerating faster than I thought it would.
If the doubling time is 3.5 days then we should see the peak around April 24th. The doubling time is also affected by how well people are self-isolating and social distancing. Since it is hard to really nail down the doubling time I would say the peak (in the US) will be somewhere between April 15th and May 15th.
I suppose everyone understands, that it is just too early to tell anything. Although example of China gives some hope that by June-July it should settle down.
Here in the UK measures developed quickly in the last week, so from Tuesday we are in a reasonable lock-down. With heavy pressure on supply chains and gigantic pressure on the NHS (National Healthcare System, so grateful that we have it!).
Depends on lock-down measures. And capacity/quality of healthcare system. E.g. you can compare Italy and Germany.
With the speed of spreading, possibly US peak will by in 2-3 weeks and will be able to spread the cases for a longer period.
Do you still have hand sanitisers and FFP2/3 masks/respirators available to buy? (not even asking about toilet rolls )
Unrealistic, viruses always evolve. But medical science really develops quickly, so custom-made drugs are closer and closer.
They are in extremely short supply right now and difficult even for health providers to obtain. I donated my workshop supply of N95 masks to a local nursing home because they couldn’t get any.
Should be illegal
Even Mecca is empty.
Here in the UK it is more civilised. With only funerals allowed, with very limited family and strict 2m separation.
I thought to do some DIY and finish sanding and varnishing my table. But quickly realised that getting even a workshop-style respirator, half or full-face, would be impossible. (so just keeping reporting people on Ebay selling them 10x more expensive - not a time for profiting)
Things are getting a little crazy out there:
The country is already starting to unravel and we are barely two weeks into this mess.
And your country is full of guns. Glad I live in a country that banned them.
I just read a good blog in my exotic language, about human group dynamics. Even if you divide a group of people randomly into smaller units, they immediately start to think in terms of a “we” versus “they” dichotomy, with everything good attributed to “us” and bad things to “them”.
The current epidemic has made this very apparent. People living in areas with few infections attribute the reason for higher contamination to the bad character or habits of people living there.
I thought Americans are free to choose where in their country they want to live. And that the borders of the states are mostly quite random, especially as viewed in modern terms.
Just 5 minutes ago I was reading of a spike in gun sales here with a lot of first time buyers. I can kind of understand in the aftermath of a natural disaster when authorities may have a hard time getting to you, but this is not that case. If anything, police are expecting a drop in property crime, because everyone is home 24/7. The governor of Connecticut is allowing gun sales to continue, but by appointment only to enforce social distancing.
100 miles distance?
What would you need a gun for? To “kill” a virus?
emergency health workers lives should not be further endangered by allowing people to have guns in their possession…
surrendering weapons should be a condition of receiving social, medical or financial aid…
Because the Post Apocalypse days are coming, I guess! Who knew that Mad Max was so prescient, except the fighting would be over toilet paper instead of gasoline or water.
Generally, one cannot discern crossing state lines while traveling were it not for the usual welcome signs along major highways.
Local governments are trying to limit visitors from outside their communities.
This travel advisory email came to me from Vilas County, Wisconsin, where I lived when first invited into the Sage program 10 yrs ago. I’m on their mailing list as I still own a parcel of land there.
Vilas County is sparsely populated. It’s mostly forest and lakes with far more deer than humans.
But the county has one of the highest populations of older adults in the State of Wisconsin.
Unfortunately, there’s this pesky Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution that prevents that.